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Forecasting Facebook’s future trends

Ben Smith Director, Media and Emerging Technology | June 18, 2019
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When it comes to Facebook, there’s no shortage of opinion, perspective, and news coverage of the social media titan. At times, it all can make it tough to see the forest for the trees. 

To help us make sense of it all we sat down with Ben Smith, Callahan’s Director of Social and Emerging Media, who recently attended Facebook’s F8 conference for developers. In this episode, Ben shares his insight and perspective on the overall health of Facebook, its coverage in news, and what emerging trends could shape future marketing tactics on the platform.

Listen here (Subscribe on iTunes, Stitcher, Google Play, Google Podcasts, Pocket Casts or your favorite podcast service. You can also ask Alexa or Siri to “play the Uncovering Aha! podcast.”):

http://traffic.libsyn.com/uncoveringaha/Episode_23_-_Facebook_F8_Recap_and_Trends_-_Uncovering_Aha.mp3

Welcome to Callahan’s Uncovering Aha! podcast. We talk about a range of topics for marketing decision-makers, with a special focus on how to uncover insights in data to drive brand strategy and inspire creativity. Featuring Ben Smith and Jan-Eric Anderson.

Jan-Eric:           
Hi, I’m Jan-Eric Anderson, Head of Strategy at Callahan.

Ben:                
I’m Ben Smith, Director of Social and Emerging Media at Callahan.

Jan-Eric:           
I’m pumped to have Ben on the podcast with me today. We’re going to be talking about his favorite topic, social media. Ben is fresh back from the F8 summit, a developer conference at Facebook. It’s a black tie event. No, it’s not a black tie event, but it is invitation only. Ben, what is F8? Help the listeners understand what F8 is and what it’s about.

Ben:                
Yeah, F8 is Facebook’s annual developer conference, as you mentioned. It’s an event they host each year, where Mark Zuckerberg, and the leadership of Facebook, really outline their vision for what’s next, both in the short term, and with their long-term roadmap, and at the same time, give attendees direct access to a lot of the product teams, the engineering teams, the people making what we’re using.

Jan-Eric:           
Got you. Invitation only. How many people are there?

Ben:                
Yeah, so there’s about 5,000 people go worldwide, and you either have to be invited, or apply, and a small number of people have their applications accepted. So, it’s a mix of pretty diverse mix of people, but a small group, which then affords that type of direct access.

Jan-Eric:           
Wow, 5,000 people’s a lot of people, but when you think about that they’re pulling from the world, it is a pretty exclusive group. You’re fresh back from that. You attended. You were one of the 5,000 in attendance.

Jan-Eric:           
So, today on the podcast, Ben has agreed to share some of his insights, from what he learned while he was at the conference. We’re thrilled to have you, so thanks for being here.

Jan-Eric:           
I guess I’d like to maybe have you comment on the elephant in the room. I see headlines all the time about Facebook. Is Facebook in trouble? Look, what’s going on? It seems like Facebook is in the middle, is the rope of the tug-of-war between in the U.S. political ecosystem right now. People hate or love Facebook for different reasons, depending on which side of the aisle. Is Facebook in trouble?

Ben:                
That’s a really interesting question. It’s one where there’s not a simple answer, but at the top level, to me, a lot of the headlines feel very overblown, being quite honest. There’s a lot of stories that make for good readership. There’s a lot of headlines that can get a little sensationalized. Yeah, there’s definitely things about Facebook which are under heavy scrutiny. It’s definitely the center of the political climate right now. A lot of it’s elevated in media topics, media conversations, and commentators, raising a lot of, sometimes valid, sometimes not as valid, questions or concerns.

Ben:                
To me, it’s something where, when I look at this, and really dig deep, a lot of the issues that are raised, are ones that really aren’t issues. At the same time, Facebook is going to be under scrutiny, but it’s also in a situation where it’s built itself, so whatever happens next, there’s really not a losing scenario. If Facebook was to be broken up, in many ways it becomes stronger as three individual companies. If Facebook continues as it is, it has a lot more opportunity, to keep growing and connecting its different services. So, I would say under scrutiny, absolutely, in trouble, not to the point I would be concerned.

Jan-Eric:           
Is Facebook in trouble with these headlines, and sometimes sensationalist headlines? Is Facebook shedding users, are they shrinking?

Ben:                
This is the really interesting part, is you’ve got this tag-of-war going on, as you mentioned, both political parties, the media, even outside pressures, even outside influences. The Chinese tech companies really are watching, and seeing what’s happening, but in the middle of it all, you have the users. The user base keeps growing. In the last quarterly report, it showed 8% year-over-year growth despite everything you hear. What we tend to see is, outside of the bubble of media headlines, the political discussion, a majority of the people in the middle, the users, just want to keep using the platform, just want to keep doing what they’re doing, just want to keep sharing their content, talking to people, connecting with people. A lot of those people are really uninfluenced by the very bubble type conversations around them. So, it’s not losing users, it’s actually still gaining users.

Jan-Eric:           
Perhaps an indication of the political system in the U.S. being disconnected from the population. This is not a political podcast, so we will leave that where it is. Let’s get back to F8, because that’s what we really wanted to, to pick your brain about.

Jan-Eric:           
I’m always fascinated. You’ve been to F8 several years in a row. I really enjoy our conversations every time that you get back from F8, and hearing what you had heard from, and you usually come back with some overarching theme, maybe one or two themes that Mark Zuckerberg is focused on at the conference. What was the theme that came out of F8 in 2019?

Ben:                
This was a very clear-cut theme this year. Other years, you’ve gotten a number of different trends going on, different themes going on underneath that overarching one. This year was very definitive, and that was a move to privacy. So, move from being a very public-built social network, to being a very private, and privacy-focused social network.

Jan-Eric:           
That’s interesting, privacy. Public and privacy. Help me understand that, because it feels to me like, unless I’m sending a direct message to somebody, everything on Facebook’s private, or is public rather.

Ben:                
Yeah. It’s actually a headline which has scared a lot of people, in the marketing and ad tech marketing space, of, well what does a private Facebook look like? I’ve read headlines saying, “Well, this is the end of Facebook for marketers,” or “This is the end of social media.” Actually, to me, yeah, there’s a lot of things that haven’t been said, and people are joining too many dots that don’t even exist. When you really start looking at what has been said, digging deeper into both directly what’s been said, but also what’s been implied, start looking at where they’re investing engineering resources, people, money, what seems to be very clear, is that the public side of Facebook isn’t going away, but they’re adding this public layer to really compliment it.

Ben:                
The analogy they use is, in our daily lives, we have both public and private spaces. The town squares, and the living rooms, is the way they described it. So, in the same way we have those public and private spaces, in our daily offline lives, we need to have that more in our online life. That we need more spaces, we can choose to be private, choose to be secluded, choose who we’re with, while still having the space and resource to be public, but need to be able to move between the two seamlessly.

Jan-Eric:           
That analogy actually is really relatable. I think that makes, actually, a ton of sense, but historically, fair to say that Facebook has been much more about a town square than the living rooms. So, the big theme here, and the Aha, is that … or what’s revealed at F8 this year, is this this migration more toward creating these living room or private spaces.

Ben:                
Yeah, and really, Facebook’s mission to date, has been connecting the world, so that’s a very, very significant shift. What they talk about a lot, is how we learn, from a brand side, from marketer side, is learning how to engage in public, and then move people to in a private connection. So, it might be in, for instance, engaging or connecting with somebody in a Facebook feed, at a very high funnel level, then moving them Facebook Messenger for a private conversation.

Jan-Eric:           
Ah, I see. The ecosystem within Facebook is huge. Maybe run down a list of some of the big products that fall into this ecosystem, that we talk about with Facebook.

Ben:                
Yeah. When we say Facebook, we’re not just talking about the Facebook app, we’re talking about Facebook itself, but then also Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp, Groups, Oculus, the VR division. So, it’s really a whole ecosystem. What’s interesting is, you see people using different parts of that ecosystem, so where Facebook talks around 2.3, 2.4 billion monthly users, when you start looking at the ecosystem, you’ve then got 2.1 billion people using at least one of those apps every single day.

Jan-Eric:           
That’s billion with a B.

Ben:                
Yeah.

Jan-Eric:           
Yeah, lots of users. So, in this shift from public spaces to more private spaces, are there certain apps, or certain products, is probably the better word, that become more of a priority now, in terms of development, and enhancements, and features within that ecosystem, as they make this migration? What does that mean from a product development standpoint?

Ben:                
Yeah, from outside looking in, from the brand side, marketer side, looking in, we’re going to have to pay really close attention to Facebook Messenger. I think we’re going to see a lot of shift there, with resources going into the Messenger product, but also how consumers are encouraged to change their behavior through new tools, new applications. We’re going to see users encouraged to use Messenger mail, where they can communicate with one-on-one, or one-to-many, or control groups. Brands are going to have to learn to follow them, and how to engage in that environment.

Ben:                
And then, we’re going to see a big push, on both Facebook and Instagram, with Stories. They’ve already become an incredibly popular means of sharing content, but I really think we’re going to see a lot of shift of Stories functionality, to allow us to do more than share video, and photos, and stories, but to start replicating what would have been feed functionality in that private Stories environment.

Jan-Eric:           
Right. Messaging huge, Stories, and evolution with Stories is a big one, groups. As there is a migration into more of Groups, perhaps, that probably has some impact as well.

Ben:                
Totally. Yeah. With the relaunch of Facebook version five that just happened, Groups was put front and center. They’re placing as much importance on communities as on friends, and Groups is a fascinating one. A business, a brand can start a group, can participate in a group, but you have to have a good reason to do that. Is there something that’s meaningful to your brand, something your brand can own in terms of conversation?

Ben:                
But yeah, Groups is another thing. And another thing we’re going to have to watch for, beyond that, is Facebook currency. It wasn’t really addressed at F8, so a little bit of a segue, but it’s coming soon. Facebook are going to be launching their own micropayment currency, which could potentially disrupt eCommerce, as well as providing a means of allowing people to make instantaneous, very small payments.

Jan-Eric:           
That’s really interesting. How does that exactly work? With these micro payments, this is a new product, that’s in development right now, right? It has not launched.

Ben:                
Correct. This is something that Facebook is going to develop and deploy, and it appears from the information we’re seeing, that it will be managed and controlled by an independent party for Facebook, so it’s under regulatory control.

Ben:                
What it would allow people to do, is make payments, potentially make payments of any value, instantaneously. So, if you think about it, you’re on a website, and you want to access a piece of content, right now, a paywall might mean you have to pay a monthly fee, and it discourages a lot of people. What if you could pay 10 cents to read that piece of content, and could do it with no friction, no credit card to be entered, no login? You could buy things at 10 cents at a time, but buy them at scale.

Jan-Eric:           
Interesting. Now, so those are bite-size, that’s the micropayment idea that … Is there, then, other extensions for commerce on that? Is it beyond just spending a nickel on an article?

Ben:                
Absolutely. Here’s a great example. Think about Instagram. Instagram is a destination people go to, not just to browse content, but to buy goods. It’s a very visual platform. People shop there, sometimes way too easily.

Jan-Eric:           
Tell me about it.

Ben:                
One of the things we’re seeing right now, is the evolution of, very intentional evolution of Instagram as a shopping platform. There’s new products being rolled out, that allow you to browse products, for the brand to embed product tags, so you can literally see a product, tap on it, and then have the opportunity to purchase that product.

Ben:                
What if you didn’t have to enter your credit card number? You could just, not only see the product, tap to view it, and to enter a checkout process, but then to buy it without doing anything more. Everything’s integrated inside your Facebook account, including the payment itself. So, no third party transaction to worry about, just a fully integrated payment, from the micropayment up to a full eCommerce platform

Jan-Eric:           
Oh, it’s going to light the idea of impulse purchases on fire, and it will be the death of my checking account, for the record. I already have a big enough problem spending money in Instagram. The worst thing for me is, they can make it easier, which they sound like they’re doing. Thanks a lot.

Jan-Eric:           
All right, so we’ve got this shift, of going into private, and you’ve been into more private type spaces. You’ve been alluding to this, and hinting as you’ve gone through, but I guess I’m kind of curious, and I’m sure CMOs will be thinking about this, what does this mean for brands?

Jan-Eric:           
I get this, as a user, and connecting with friends, and smaller communities, and smaller groups, and smaller spaces. The living room example makes a ton of sense. What does it mean for a brand? Is this limiting for a brand? What opportunities does this create for brands, and how should CMOs be thinking about that?

Ben:                
Yeah. That’s such an important question. I’ve heard so many negative push backs, negative headlines around this, of, well we can’t advertise in that environment. One of my personal beliefs around social, has always been, the biggest opportunity is building one-on-one relationships at scale. I’d love the process of doing that. So, to me this aligns perfectly with that.

Ben:                
That actually presents a really exciting opportunity to rethink how we advertise. So, I don’t look at this as a negative or something scary. The deeper I dig into this, the more I actually find opportunity. I’m looking at this. Think of the public space as the very top of the funnel, that initial awareness level, and then moving to private being that consideration phase. How we move from consideration to conversion.

Ben:                
Moving to private doesn’t mean to say you have to have, literally, a one-on-one conversation with somebody. There’s so many technologies you can deploy, and develop, to do that automatically, but in a meaningful way.

Ben:                
A great example is with Facebook Messenger. You can talk to somebody individually as a community manager, or you can develop a messenger Bot, that can help people find what they need, either information, or a product, something to buy, an appointment to make. You can have them move through that process, seamlessly, all the way to completion and conversion.

Ben:                
So, you’re engaging in a high effort awareness level in the public, moving through the funnel in private. It’s got so much potential, it’s actually a very exciting thing to see happening.

Jan-Eric:           
Yeah. And having worked with you enough, I’ve come to really appreciate your commitment to that one-on-one relationships at scale, of personalized relationships at scale. It almost seems like this is setting up to create an even better environment for being able to do those things.

Jan-Eric:           
Ben, before we wrap up, is there anything else that you … any other final notes you’d want to add about F8, or Facebook in general?

Ben:                
Yeah. I think, to me, that the big thing right now is just, don’t take every headline at face value. Facebook makes a good media scapegoat right now. There’s a lot of stories out there. It’s a very political issue. There’s also a lot of agendas at play. So I would encourage, particularly anybody who’s making business decisions around this, to dig deeper, and to not take every headline, not be reactionary, but to understand the longer term mission, the longer term vision, and to understand, truly, what the implications are of the changes Facebook are making, and potential political outcomes, and what it really means, and look for the opportunity instead of fearing the worst.

Jan-Eric:           
Well, yeah. Just to kind of build upon that, it seems like, if you read through the tea leaves, Facebook’s actually primed to take a huge leap forward. This particular trend, or theme, around the future being private, seems like it actually lends to the strength of the platform, and we actually may be on the doorstep of a whole new horizon, of great ways for brands to be even more relevant within that platform, and making more personal relationships.

Ben:                
Yeah. I think something that Facebook’s done a tremendous job of, over the years, is really understanding the importance of keeping users, and to keep users, you have to have a healthy platform, a healthy environment. If they’re willing to take a huge shift in how they do their business, ultimately they’re confident in how that impacts the user health, and users on the platform. So, for a brand, for marketers, the more users that are engaged in that platform, obviously the better. So, absolutely.

Jan-Eric:           
Well, the coming months will be really interesting to see, how all these developments unfold. And as you’ve stated all the time, by the time we get done recording this, maybe there will be new updates, that we’re already out of date on this podcast. Regardless of that, Ben, your insights from F8 are always really appreciated. Thank you so much for joining us on the podcast.

Ben:                
Well, thank you.

 

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